Promising a bright and happy future is a risky tactic, however. Promising a vaccine by Christmas would damage the president’s credibility if the holiday comes and there is no vaccine. We’ve seen this happen before to world leaders. In 1918, Woodrow Wilson promised that the League of Nations would “make the world safe for democracy” and in 1986, Gorbachev promised that Glasnost and Perestroika would save the Soviet Union. In those historical moments, both men were weakened irreparably by these empty promises.

Then again, these unlikely promises might not damage Trump’s credibility at all. The election will be over by Christmas, and we all know how long election promises last. Also, for many, his credibility does not seem to rely on telling the truth. Quite the opposite, in fact. At the end of February, he said that the virus would go away on its own. Two weeks later, he said that the COVID deaths would be less than H1N1, which was 12,500. Then on April 30, he said that no more than 60,000 would die. Today he “moved the goal post” back to 100,000 (which is actually the estimated number that Fauci projected back on March 29).

One plausible way to read this disconnect between Trump’s promises and the lack of consequences when they don’t happen the way he says they will is partisanship—he’s on the same “team” as about two-thirds of those polled day in and day out, so it doesn’t matter what he does.[2] But another is that we are inured to it. Some of us have just decided that there aren’t principles around which we’re willing to take a stand—which could be part of the plan.[3] The more depressing interpretation, however, is that we actually get a thrill from it somehow. That we enjoy the theater. Will Trump “win” by getting a “vaccine” distributed by Christmas, or by the election? Will we get the frissón of self-justification by seeing that he’s wrong? Maybe the reason he wins is because he knows this is all reality TV and that we are a captive audience.

Notes

[1] Ben Wagner, “Tavern League of Wisconsin to Bars: ‘Open Immediately,’” WISN, May 14, 2020, https://www.wisn.com/article/tavern-league-of-wisconsin-to-bars-open-immediately/32468830; Meagan Flynn, “After Wisconsin Court Ruling, Crowds Liberated and Thirsty Descend on Bars. ‘We’re the Wild West,’ Gov. Tony Evers Says.,” Washington Post, May 14, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/14/wisconsin-bars-reopen-evers/.

[2] Harry Dayantis, “How Lying Takes Our Brains down a ‘Slippery Slope,’” University College London News, October 25, 2016, https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2016/oct/how-lying-takes-our-brains-down-slippery-slope.

[3] Mike Mariani, “Is Trump’s Chaos Tornado a Move From the Kremlin’s Playbook?,” Vanity Fair, March 28, 2017, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/is-trumps-chaos-a-move-from-the-kremlins-playbook.